SK Hynix Surges 5.54% on Strait of Hormuz Expectations: What's Behind the Foreign Net Buying Inflow?

HBM Monopoly and the Semiconductor Cycle: The Essence of SK Hynix's Growth

SK Hynix (000660) has established itself as a de facto monopoly supplier in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market, possessing a growth story directly linked to the explosive demand in AI and high-performance computing sectors. As HBM evolves beyond simple memory to become a core component of next-generation systems such as GPUs, AI servers, and autonomous driving, SK Hynix is securing an unrivaled cash position in the advanced semiconductor cycle.

The recently announced consensus target price of KRW 1,360,800 by securities firms is not merely an expectation of price appreciation, but the result of combining the medium-term boom in the AI-centric semiconductor industry with the alleviation of HBM supply constraints. Amid forecasts that the semiconductor business cycle will improve until mid-next year, SK Hynix's product mix improvement and profitability enhancement are being pre-reflected in its stock price.

Foreign Investors Turn to Net Buying After 12 Trading Days: Meaning from Supply and Demand Data

On April 3, 2026, SK Hynix closed at KRW 876,000, up 5.54% from the previous day. On this day, foreign investors net bought approximately KRW 808.5 billion, shifting from selling to buying for the first time in 12 trading days. Institutional investors also recorded net buying of KRW 720 billion. This change in supply and demand is interpreted as a signal of a shift in investor sentiment beyond simple short-term trading.

The table below summarizes the trading trends of foreign and institutional investors in SK Hynix over the past three weeks.

The shift to buying by foreign investors is the result of a combination of the easing of external variables, positive signals in the semiconductor industry, and valuation attractiveness. In particular, the inflow of cautious buying by foreign investors amid global market uncertainty is noteworthy from a mid-to-long-term perspective.

Strait of Hormuz Risk and the Semiconductor Supply Chain: Exaggeration and Reality

Behind this surge in SK Hynix lies the progress of discussions on passage rules in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of easing geopolitical risks. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic point through which more than 20% of the global crude oil supply passes, and the easing of tensions in this region can lead to stabilization of raw material prices and a reduction in supply chain risks.

However, it should be noted that the direct and indirect impact on the semiconductor sector is limited. The global supply chain for semiconductor materials, components, and equipment is mainly concentrated in East Asia, and the cost pressure caused by crude oil price fluctuations is short-term and secondary compared to the semiconductor product demand and supply cycle.

In other words, while the Strait of Hormuz issue acted as a positive catalyst for investment sentiment, it is far from a fundamental earnings improvement. In reality, SK Hynix's supply chain has secured long-term stability, and the impact of the easing of geopolitical variables on mid-to-long-term stock price momentum is limited.

Short-Term Trading vs. Mid-Term Investment Perspective

Short-Term Trading

The surge on April 3 is the result of a combination of easing geopolitical risks and massive foreign buying, which is interpreted as a concentration of profit-taking and responsive buying due to increased short-term volatility. From a short-term trader's perspective, a daily increase of more than 5% can be a signal for adjusting short-term target prices and detecting selling timing.

From a technical analysis perspective, breaking through KRW 876,000 means strengthening short-term momentum along with the disappearance of the resistance line, but the possibility of increased volatility remains depending on whether trading volume accompanies it and changes in external variables. Therefore, for short-term buying to continue, maintaining the major support line (KRW 860,000 range) is important.

Mid-Term Investment

In the medium term, the core is the surge in HBM demand due to the spread of AI and high-performance computing and expectations of a recovery in the semiconductor industry. The HBM market, where SK Hynix has a monopolistic position, has high entry barriers, giving it a clear technological advantage over competitors. It is positive that the valuation burden has eased through a correction phase over the past 12 trading days, and securities firms' investment sentiment has also shifted to a 'buy dominance'.

However, risk factors such as global economic uncertainty, interest rate fluctuations, and inventory adjustments by major clients exist. Investors need to closely monitor quarterly earnings and changes in client demand, and keep an eye on whether the HBM-centric product mix is strengthened and the progress of R&D investments.

Independent Analysis: Market Position and Valuation Compared to Competitors

SK Hynix divides the global DRAM and NAND market with Samsung Electronics' memory business, but in the HBM sector, it has differentiated growth momentum as a de facto monopoly supplier. Compared to competitors, its HBM production and revenue growth rates over the past two years are more than 20% higher, and securing technology licenses and diversifying clients are also strengths.

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER) and Price-to-Book Ratio (PBR) are at 12x and 1.8x, respectively, which are slightly higher than the global semiconductor industry average. This is the result of pre-reflecting expectations for future AI and high-performance computing demand, but at the same time, it is interpreted as a premium for the pursuit of emerging competitors and technological volatility.

On the chart, an upward trend has appeared along with a steady increase in trading volume since the low in March, and if the breakthrough of the psychological resistance line of KRW 880,000 is confirmed, it can be seen as a signal of a mid-term upward reversal. However, one should also be wary of the overbought state due to the short-term surge.

FAQ: Questions Asked by In-Depth Investors

1. What is the fundamental reason for the reversal of foreign net buying after 12 trading days?

It is the result of a combination of short-term geopolitical risk easing and expectations of semiconductor industry improvement, but more importantly, recent semiconductor demand indicators and inventory cycle improvement signals drove the recovery of foreign investors' confidence. Expectations of a global semiconductor economic recovery led the shift to buying, and valuation attractiveness acted as a catalyst.

2. What is the actual impact of the Strait of Hormuz issue on SK Hynix's supply chain?

Stabilization of crude oil supply is positive in terms of cost, but SK Hynix's major material and component supply chains are concentrated in East Asia and global semiconductor equipment companies, so it is hard to see it as a direct hit. However, it only acts as short-term momentum in terms of improving investment sentiment and is not a fundamental profit improvement factor.

3. How sustainable is SK Hynix's HBM monopoly?

HBM has high entry barriers due to high technological difficulty and large-scale facility investments. SK Hynix is highly likely to maintain its monopolistic position through long-term contracts, technology patents, and providing customized solutions for clients. However, the technology development movements of competitors such as Intel and Micron are subjects for monitoring.

4. What is the impact of the current stock price surge on mid-to-long-term investments?

A short-term surge also induces profit-taking pressure, but stock price level adjustments are a natural phenomenon in a situation where mid-to-long-term fundamentals are solid. It is advisable for investors to re-examine their buying timing according to future quarterly earnings, AI demand trends, and changes in external variables.

Conclusion

SK Hynix's 5.54% surge on April 3 is the result of a combination of supply and demand changes: the easing of geopolitical risks and the reversal of foreign net buying. However, one should not overlook the fact that the real growth momentum lies in its HBM monopoly market position and the recovery of the semiconductor cycle. From a short-term trading perspective, one should prepare for increased volatility, and from a mid-term investment perspective, it is time to keep an eye on the expansion of demand driven by the era of AI and high-performance computing.

References

• Korea Exchange, SK Hynix Daily Supply and Demand Data (March-April 2026)
• Securities Firm Research Report, "SK Hynix HBM Market Monopoly and Growth Prospects" (March 2026)
• International Energy Agency (IEA) Report, "Strait of Hormuz Geopolitical Risk Analysis" (Q1 2026)
• Semiconductor Industry Analysis Consulting, "Global Memory Market Cycle and Competitive Landscape" (End of 2025)